Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (300573.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.83 - $312.40$144.44
Multi-Stage$56.19 - $61.37$58.74
Blended Fair Value$101.59
Current Price$65.73
Upside54.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.75%46.09%2.210.840.380.190.050.090.090.050.030.05
YoY Growth--163.44%123.39%92.56%299.61%-48.48%0.00%100.00%52.51%-38.11%0.58%
Dividend Yield--3.95%0.75%0.78%0.59%0.15%0.28%1.34%0.53%0.18%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)646.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)266.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)379.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.2480.7848.47
Cash Retained (M)379.25379.25379.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.24-80.78-48.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)250.01298.48330.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.23211.23211.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.411.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.411.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.83
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.83$144.44$312.40
Upside / Downside32.09%119.74%375.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)646.21688.21732.94780.58831.32885.36911.92
Payout Ratio41.31%51.05%60.79%70.52%80.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)266.95351.32445.53550.50667.24796.82843.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)320.84323.88326.92
Year 2 PV (M)371.56378.64385.79
Year 3 PV (M)419.27431.31443.57
Year 4 PV (M)464.08481.93500.28
Year 5 PV (M)506.12530.56555.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,788.2110,260.9810,751.85
Equity Value (M)11,870.0812,407.3012,964.35
Shares Outstanding (M)211.23211.23211.23
Fair Value$56.19$58.74$61.37
Upside / Downside-14.51%-10.64%-6.63%

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