Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. (300430.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.46 - $13.29$8.12
Multi-Stage$3.88 - $4.24$4.06
Blended Fair Value$6.09
Current Price$19.95
Upside-69.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.15%26.55%0.170.020.020.060.030.020.040.040.040.01
YoY Growth--704.75%0.10%-67.07%89.22%37.44%-37.24%-0.44%-5.54%573.65%-61.59%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.12%0.13%0.47%0.46%0.32%0.39%0.26%0.22%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.268.294.97
Cash Retained (M)43.5443.5443.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.26-8.29-4.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.2735.2538.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.49264.49264.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.46$8.12$13.29
Upside / Downside-72.63%-59.28%-33.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.3270.6375.2280.1185.3290.8693.59
Payout Ratio34.35%45.48%56.61%67.74%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7832.1342.5954.2767.2981.7886.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.38%9.38%9.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.1029.3729.65
Year 2 PV (M)34.9335.6036.27
Year 3 PV (M)40.3241.4742.65
Year 4 PV (M)45.2847.0248.81
Year 5 PV (M)49.8452.2454.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)827.41867.37908.87
Equity Value (M)1,026.871,073.081,120.99
Shares Outstanding (M)264.49264.49264.49
Fair Value$3.88$4.06$4.24
Upside / Downside-80.54%-79.66%-78.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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