Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.13 - $17.33 | $13.99 |
| Multi-Stage | $26.99 - $29.67 | $28.30 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.15 | |
| Current Price | $16.46 | |
| Upside | 28.47% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -6.45% | 0.00% | 0.73 | 0.87 | 1.09 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -16.09% | -20.18% | 118.00% | -19.87% | -38.76% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.85% | 4.71% | 5.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 358.28 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 308.81 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 49.47 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 71.66 | 44.78 | 26.87 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 49.47 | 49.47 | 49.47 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -71.66 | -44.78 | -26.87 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -22.19 | 4.69 | 22.60 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 305.74 | 305.74 | 305.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.08 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $11.13 | $13.99 | $17.33 |
| Upside / Downside | -32.38% | -14.99% | 5.30% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 358.28 | 354.69 | 351.15 | 347.63 | 344.16 | 340.72 | 350.94 |
| Payout Ratio | 86.19% | 86.95% | 87.72% | 88.48% | 89.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 308.81 | 308.42 | 308.01 | 307.58 | 307.12 | 306.65 | 324.62 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 287.33 | 290.27 | 293.20 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 267.33 | 272.82 | 278.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 248.71 | 256.40 | 264.25 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 231.36 | 240.95 | 250.83 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 215.21 | 226.42 | 238.08 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,001.06 | 7,365.62 | 7,745.21 |
| Equity Value (M) | 8,251.00 | 8,652.47 | 9,069.93 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 305.74 | 305.74 | 305.74 |
| Fair Value | $26.99 | $28.30 | $29.67 |
| Upside / Downside | 63.95% | 71.93% | 80.23% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |