Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Huarchi Global Group Holdings Limited (2296.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.57 - $0.88$0.71
Multi-Stage$1.33 - $1.46$1.39
Blended Fair Value$1.05
Current Price$1.25
Upside-15.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%18.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2912.687.61
Cash Retained (M)21.4321.4321.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.29-12.68-7.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.158.7513.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,667.121,667.121,667.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.57$0.71$0.88
Upside / Downside-54.68%-43.17%-29.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.43100.4299.4198.4297.4496.4699.35
Payout Ratio78.87%81.10%83.32%85.55%87.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.0081.4482.8384.2085.5286.8191.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)75.7576.5277.30
Year 2 PV (M)71.6773.1474.63
Year 3 PV (M)67.7669.8672.00
Year 4 PV (M)64.0366.6869.41
Year 5 PV (M)60.4663.6066.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,871.451,968.902,070.37
Equity Value (M)2,211.122,318.712,430.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,667.121,667.121,667.12
Fair Value$1.33$1.39$1.46
Upside / Downside6.10%11.27%16.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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