Definitive Analysis
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Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (2145.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.93 - $60.23$48.81
Multi-Stage$89.99 - $98.98$94.40
Blended Fair Value$71.61
Current Price$74.80
Upside-4.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.310.450.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--191.51%-10.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.01%1.85%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,069.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.10208.19124.91
Cash Retained (M)595.51595.51595.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.10-208.19-124.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)262.41387.32470.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$38.93$48.81$60.23
Upside / Downside-47.95%-34.75%-19.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.501,648.841,632.361,616.031,599.871,583.871,631.39
Payout Ratio64.24%69.40%74.55%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,069.991,144.231,216.871,287.941,357.471,425.491,509.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,064.271,075.131,085.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,052.741,074.331,096.15
Year 3 PV (M)1,036.371,068.421,101.12
Year 4 PV (M)1,015.981,058.091,101.50
Year 5 PV (M)992.331,044.011,097.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,652.9232,249.0933,911.07
Equity Value (M)35,814.6137,569.0639,393.62
Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
Fair Value$89.99$94.40$98.98
Upside / Downside20.31%26.20%32.33%

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