Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lonza Group AG (0QNO.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$991.76 - $3,590.71$3,136.49
Multi-Stage$498.32 - $545.36$521.41
Blended Fair Value$1,828.95
Current Price$565.00
Upside223.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.14%9.90%3.993.613.093.122.832.832.862.221.821.82
YoY Growth--10.77%16.59%-0.89%10.29%0.00%-0.97%28.75%22.14%0.00%16.96%
Dividend Yield--0.75%1.02%0.68%0.41%0.50%0.80%1.12%0.84%1.11%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,306.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)569.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)737.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)261.20163.2597.95
Cash Retained (M)737.00737.00737.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-261.20-163.25-97.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)475.80573.75639.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.607.968.86
LTM Dividend per Share7.897.897.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.607.968.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.4915.8516.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.14%6.14%7.14%
Fair Value$991.76$3,136.49$3,590.71
Upside / Downside75.53%455.13%535.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,306.001,386.191,471.311,561.651,657.541,759.311,812.09
Payout Ratio43.57%52.85%62.14%71.43%80.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)569.00732.66914.281,115.441,337.861,583.381,676.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.14%6.14%7.14%
Year 1 PV (M)680.34686.81693.28
Year 2 PV (M)788.35803.42818.63
Year 3 PV (M)893.11918.84945.05
Year 4 PV (M)994.691,033.081,072.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,093.161,146.141,201.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,475.4233,001.0034,585.17
Equity Value (M)35,925.0837,589.2939,315.86
Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
Fair Value$498.32$521.41$545.36
Upside / Downside-11.80%-7.72%-3.48%

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