Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $107.90 - $160.44 | $132.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $163.29 - $178.98 | $170.99 |
| Blended Fair Value | $151.97 | |
| Current Price | $300.41 | |
| Upside | -49.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.17% | 5.92% | 5.41 | 5.43 | 5.17 | 4.56 | 4.25 | 4.21 | 3.74 | 3.12 | 3.08 | 3.16 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.33% | 4.97% | 13.52% | 7.08% | 1.16% | 12.44% | 20.06% | 1.15% | -2.52% | 3.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.28% | 2.15% | 2.44% | 1.60% | 1.58% | 2.88% | 1.93% | 2.29% | 2.75% | 3.80% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,962.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,218.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,744.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 592.40 | 370.25 | 222.15 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,744.00 | 1,744.00 | 1,744.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -592.40 | -370.25 | -222.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,151.60 | 1,373.75 | 1,521.85 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 225.68 | 225.68 | 225.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.10 | 6.09 | 6.74 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.10 | 6.09 | 6.74 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.50 | 11.48 | 12.14 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.58% | 0.42% | 1.42% |
| Fair Value | $107.90 | $132.95 | $160.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -64.08% | -55.74% | -46.59% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,962.00 | 2,974.53 | 2,987.12 | 2,999.76 | 3,012.45 | 3,025.20 | 3,115.96 |
| Payout Ratio | 41.12% | 50.90% | 60.67% | 70.45% | 80.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,218.00 | 1,513.94 | 1,812.36 | 2,113.28 | 2,416.72 | 2,722.68 | 2,882.26 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.58% | 0.42% | 1.42% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,373.87 | 1,387.69 | 1,401.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,492.51 | 1,522.69 | 1,553.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,579.31 | 1,627.45 | 1,676.55 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,638.98 | 1,705.92 | 1,774.89 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,675.64 | 1,761.62 | 1,851.10 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,089.09 | 30,581.71 | 32,134.98 |
| Equity Value (M) | 36,849.41 | 38,587.08 | 40,392.19 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 225.68 | 225.68 | 225.68 |
| Fair Value | $163.29 | $170.99 | $178.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -45.65% | -43.08% | -40.42% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |