Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thales S.A. (0IW5.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.29 - $380.96$256.53
Multi-Stage$216.40 - $236.82$226.42
Blended Fair Value$241.48
Current Price$249.60
Upside-3.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.87%11.30%3.433.072.732.020.412.241.851.691.441.13
YoY Growth--11.79%12.48%35.11%390.01%-81.62%21.20%9.52%17.55%26.84%-3.62%
Dividend Yield--2.47%2.29%2.29%2.70%0.55%2.42%1.81%1.85%1.56%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,075.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,459.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)615.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)415.08259.43155.66
Cash Retained (M)615.80615.80615.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-415.08-259.43-155.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.72356.38460.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.53206.53206.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.732.23
LTM Dividend per Share7.077.077.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.732.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.048.799.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$181.29$256.53$380.96
Upside / Downside-27.37%2.78%52.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,075.402,152.612,232.702,315.762,401.922,491.282,566.02
Payout Ratio70.33%74.26%78.20%82.13%86.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,459.601,598.591,745.911,901.972,067.232,242.152,373.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)1,475.811,490.171,504.54
Year 2 PV (M)1,488.011,517.121,546.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,496.511,540.641,585.63
Year 4 PV (M)1,501.611,560.941,622.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,503.571,578.201,655.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,227.9939,075.7240,996.10
Equity Value (M)44,693.4946,762.7948,910.56
Shares Outstanding (M)206.53206.53206.53
Fair Value$216.40$226.42$236.82
Upside / Downside-13.30%-9.29%-5.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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