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Definitive Analysis

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DB Securities Co., Ltd. (016610.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44,512.25 - $261,877.00$82,001.01
Multi-Stage$33,148.08 - $36,308.95$34,699.22
Blended Fair Value$58,350.12
Current Price$8,290.00
Upside603.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.69%31.92%212.27181.93527.11321.61270.23269.94116.0713.3013.30116.07
YoY Growth--16.68%-65.49%63.90%19.02%0.11%132.57%772.93%0.00%-88.54%772.93%
Dividend Yield--3.98%4.34%13.13%4.81%4.47%8.95%2.38%0.32%0.37%2.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53,641.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,222.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)37,419.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,728.386,705.244,023.14
Cash Retained (M)37,419.5537,419.5537,419.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,728.38-6,705.24-4,023.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,691.1730,714.3133,396.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.3140.3140.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share662.13761.93828.46
LTM Dividend per Share402.43402.43402.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share662.13761.93828.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,064.551,164.361,230.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Fair Value$44,512.25$82,001.01$261,877.00
Upside / Downside436.94%889.16%3,058.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53,641.9056,526.2359,565.6462,768.4966,143.5669,700.1071,791.10
Payout Ratio30.24%42.19%54.15%66.10%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,222.3523,850.4232,251.9141,487.9551,623.9862,730.0966,406.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Year 1 PV (M)22,104.7622,316.5422,528.32
Year 2 PV (M)27,703.5328,236.9128,775.38
Year 3 PV (M)33,028.7033,987.1334,963.93
Year 4 PV (M)38,089.9839,570.8041,094.39
Year 5 PV (M)42,896.8144,991.4647,167.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,172,416.881,229,666.001,289,129.96
Equity Value (M)1,336,240.671,398,768.851,463,659.13
Shares Outstanding (M)40.3140.3140.31
Fair Value$33,148.08$34,699.22$36,308.95
Upside / Downside299.86%318.57%337.98%

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