Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hwacheon Machinery Co., Ltd. (010660.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,048.64 - $1,484.72$1,264.00
Multi-Stage$1,578.39 - $1,732.28$1,653.85
Blended Fair Value$1,458.93
Current Price$5,630.00
Upside-74.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.23%-10.40%30.6527.589.190.000.009.199.190.0032.1982.75
YoY Growth--11.11%199.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-61.11%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.44%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.45%0.42%0.00%1.48%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,455.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)879.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,575.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)691.17431.98259.19
Cash Retained (M)2,575.982,575.982,575.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-691.17-431.98-259.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,884.802,143.992,316.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.5321.5321.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share87.5399.56107.59
LTM Dividend per Share40.8640.8640.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share87.5399.56107.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend128.39140.42148.45
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,048.64$1,264.00$1,484.72
Upside / Downside-81.37%-77.55%-73.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,455.873,421.313,387.103,353.233,319.693,286.503,385.09
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.18%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)879.891,312.711,736.792,152.252,559.222,957.853,131.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,181.341,193.391,205.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,406.551,435.401,464.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,568.581,617.091,666.58
Year 4 PV (M)1,678.521,748.091,819.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,745.821,836.721,931.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,408.0427,783.1729,214.99
Equity Value (M)33,988.8435,613.8637,302.74
Shares Outstanding (M)21.5321.5321.53
Fair Value$1,578.39$1,653.85$1,732.28
Upside / Downside-71.96%-70.62%-69.23%

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