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Definitive Analysis

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Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. (003490.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133,816.71 - $508,421.58$389,007.65
Multi-Stage$62,905.86 - $68,831.50$65,814.38
Blended Fair Value$227,411.01
Current Price$22,750.00
Upside899.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.60%34.78%750.30760.6512.3049.02164.4968.09181.9790.6762.9337.91
YoY Growth---1.36%6,085.63%-74.91%-70.20%141.57%-62.58%100.70%44.08%66.00%-0.03%
Dividend Yield--3.52%3.45%0.05%0.16%0.60%0.54%0.82%0.40%0.29%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)948,002.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)281,569.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)666,432.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189,600.41118,500.2571,100.15
Cash Retained (M)666,432.94666,432.94666,432.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-189,600.41-118,500.25-71,100.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)476,832.54547,932.69595,332.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)370.82370.82370.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,285.881,477.621,605.44
LTM Dividend per Share759.31759.31759.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,285.881,477.621,605.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,045.192,236.932,364.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$133,816.71$389,007.65$508,421.58
Upside / Downside488.21%1,609.92%2,134.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)948,002.041,009,622.171,075,247.611,145,138.711,219,572.721,298,844.951,337,810.30
Payout Ratio29.70%41.76%53.82%65.88%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)281,569.10421,628.86578,706.76754,423.42950,538.191,168,960.461,237,474.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)389,936.05393,632.12397,328.20
Year 2 PV (M)494,976.60504,404.51513,921.37
Year 3 PV (M)596,766.35613,897.36631,353.13
Year 4 PV (M)695,379.35722,121.68749,628.02
Year 5 PV (M)790,888.20829,088.39868,750.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,358,931.5921,342,275.6022,363,254.50
Equity Value (M)23,326,878.1424,405,419.6825,524,235.82
Shares Outstanding (M)370.82370.82370.82
Fair Value$62,905.86$65,814.38$68,831.50
Upside / Downside176.51%189.29%202.56%

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