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Foran Energy Group Co.,Ltd. (002911.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.14 - $122.33$114.64
Multi-Stage$19.68 - $21.51$20.58
Blended Fair Value$67.61
Current Price$13.45
Upside402.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.31%12.87%0.570.470.450.370.230.200.150.250.180.17
YoY Growth--22.08%4.38%19.48%59.11%17.70%30.27%-38.34%41.09%1.60%2.25%
Dividend Yield--5.03%4.44%4.46%5.05%2.68%3.33%1.89%2.11%1.94%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)881.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)800.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)176.23110.1466.09
Cash Retained (M)80.6680.6680.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-176.23-110.14-66.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-95.58-29.4914.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,432.481,432.481,432.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.020.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.020.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.14$114.64$122.33
Upside / Downside369.46%752.37%809.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)881.16938.43999.431,064.391,133.581,207.261,243.48
Payout Ratio90.85%90.68%90.51%90.34%90.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)800.50850.95904.56961.561,022.141,086.541,150.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)792.83800.35807.86
Year 2 PV (M)785.23800.19815.28
Year 3 PV (M)777.70800.03822.77
Year 4 PV (M)770.24799.86830.33
Year 5 PV (M)762.85799.69837.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,307.9025,481.9826,700.99
Equity Value (M)28,196.7529,482.0930,815.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,432.481,432.481,432.48
Fair Value$19.68$20.58$21.51
Upside / Downside46.35%53.02%59.94%

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