Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yantai China Pet Foods Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.94 - $257.41$86.82
Multi-Stage$29.02 - $31.71$30.35
Blended Fair Value$58.58
Current Price$53.21
Upside10.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.20%21.81%0.490.090.100.090.090.080.060.110.060.02
YoY Growth--431.06%-8.19%7.00%1.16%10.19%44.15%-45.12%71.95%248.07%-73.88%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.38%0.42%0.45%0.31%0.58%0.40%0.83%0.71%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.0355.6433.39
Cash Retained (M)263.89263.89263.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.03-55.64-33.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.86208.25230.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.86305.86305.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.94$86.82$257.41
Upside / Downside-9.90%63.16%383.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.15474.08504.90537.72572.67609.89628.19
Payout Ratio40.72%50.57%60.43%70.29%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.26239.77305.12377.95458.96548.90581.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)219.80221.88223.96
Year 2 PV (M)256.40261.29266.22
Year 3 PV (M)291.15299.51308.03
Year 4 PV (M)324.11336.57349.39
Year 5 PV (M)355.34372.50390.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,430.827,789.748,162.38
Equity Value (M)8,877.629,281.499,700.30
Shares Outstanding (M)305.86305.86305.86
Fair Value$29.02$30.35$31.71
Upside / Downside-45.45%-42.97%-40.40%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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