Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. (002627.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.52 - $0.69$0.61
Multi-Stage$0.72 - $0.78$0.75
Blended Fair Value$0.68
Current Price$6.01
Upside-88.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.04%11.55%0.110.020.100.040.050.070.040.030.030.04
YoY Growth--504.09%-81.95%157.44%-15.00%-29.25%70.00%38.67%0.00%-25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%0.35%1.76%0.54%0.82%1.25%0.81%0.44%0.37%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3011.446.86
Cash Retained (M)15.5315.5315.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.30-11.44-6.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.774.098.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.97717.97717.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate15.89%15.89%15.89%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Fair Value$0.52$0.61$0.69
Upside / Downside-91.29%-89.83%-88.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.5289.6987.8986.1384.4182.7285.20
Payout Ratio83.03%84.43%85.82%87.21%88.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.9975.7275.4375.1274.7974.4578.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.89%15.89%15.89%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64.6765.3466.00
Year 2 PV (M)55.0256.1657.32
Year 3 PV (M)46.8048.2649.76
Year 4 PV (M)39.8041.4743.18
Year 5 PV (M)33.8435.6237.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)277.91292.54307.77
Equity Value (M)518.04539.38561.50
Shares Outstanding (M)717.97717.97717.97
Fair Value$0.72$0.75$0.78
Upside / Downside-87.99%-87.50%-86.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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