Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nexen Tire Corporation (002350.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260,291.58 - $306,783.91$287,447.46
Multi-Stage$177,812.75 - $195,546.95$186,510.78
Blended Fair Value$236,979.12
Current Price$5,850.00
Upside3,950.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.83%6.14%115.22100.23105.23105.23105.23100.23100.2399.0179.2774.34
YoY Growth--14.95%-4.75%0.00%0.00%4.98%0.00%1.23%24.90%6.64%17.03%
Dividend Yield--2.13%1.20%1.22%1.64%1.38%2.14%0.98%0.79%0.57%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)161,672.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,378.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)148,293.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,334.4020,209.0012,125.40
Cash Retained (M)148,293.25148,293.25148,293.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,334.40-20,209.00-12,125.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)115,958.85128,084.25136,167.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.75102.75102.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,128.551,246.561,325.23
LTM Dividend per Share130.21130.21130.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,128.551,246.561,325.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,258.761,376.771,455.44
WACC / Discount Rate0.49%0.49%0.49%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$260,291.58$287,447.46$306,783.91
Upside / Downside4,349.43%4,813.63%5,144.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)161,672.00168,772.72176,185.31183,923.47192,001.49200,434.30206,447.33
Payout Ratio8.28%24.62%40.97%57.31%73.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,378.7541,552.1772,174.57105,406.72141,418.79180,390.87190,963.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.49%0.49%0.49%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)40,952.2741,348.3641,744.45
Year 2 PV (M)70,105.6371,468.3072,844.08
Year 3 PV (M)100,907.00103,863.31106,876.80
Year 4 PV (M)133,427.23138,664.60144,054.66
Year 5 PV (M)167,739.86176,010.13184,603.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,757,127.6818,632,628.0919,542,325.58
Equity Value (M)18,270,259.6819,163,982.7820,092,449.01
Shares Outstanding (M)102.75102.75102.75
Fair Value$177,812.75$186,510.78$195,546.95
Upside / Downside2,939.53%3,088.22%3,242.68%

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