Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co., Ltd (002273.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.23 - $166.39$155.93
Multi-Stage$114.13 - $125.25$119.59
Blended Fair Value$137.76
Current Price$26.44
Upside421.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.70%26.27%0.400.220.200.180.090.070.050.050.030.05
YoY Growth--85.26%7.94%13.31%93.91%34.68%32.94%3.17%56.06%-33.99%23.23%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.46%1.44%1.59%0.84%0.51%0.44%0.41%0.24%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,151.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)414.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)737.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.32143.9586.37
Cash Retained (M)737.02737.02737.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.32-143.95-86.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)506.70593.07650.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,376.451,376.451,376.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate-1.18%-1.18%-1.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$141.23$155.93$166.39
Upside / Downside434.15%489.76%529.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,151.621,226.481,306.201,391.101,481.521,577.821,625.15
Payout Ratio36.00%46.80%57.60%68.40%79.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)414.60574.00752.38951.521,173.371,420.041,503.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.18%-1.18%-1.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)575.41580.86586.32
Year 2 PV (M)756.07770.47785.01
Year 3 PV (M)958.54986.051,014.09
Year 4 PV (M)1,184.921,230.491,277.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,437.531,506.971,579.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,178.82159,529.11167,160.72
Equity Value (M)157,091.29164,603.96172,402.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,376.451,376.451,376.45
Fair Value$114.13$119.59$125.25
Upside / Downside331.65%352.29%373.72%

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