Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Leaguer Co., Ltd. (002243.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.86 - $37.41$22.11
Multi-Stage$4.64 - $5.06$4.85
Blended Fair Value$13.48
Current Price$9.57
Upside40.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.72%35.98%0.200.200.260.150.100.100.020.020.000.01
YoY Growth---3.48%-23.18%74.93%46.38%4.65%552.66%0.00%409.68%-56.64%-24.58%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.90%2.91%1.41%1.10%0.80%0.07%0.20%0.02%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.5528.4717.08
Cash Retained (M)25.5425.5425.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.55-28.47-17.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)-20.01-2.938.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,210.581,210.581,210.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.86$22.11$37.41
Upside / Downside-7.46%131.04%290.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.73242.53258.30275.08292.97312.01321.37
Payout Ratio88.79%89.03%89.27%89.51%89.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.19215.92230.59246.24262.96280.81297.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)199.36201.25203.14
Year 2 PV (M)196.56200.30204.08
Year 3 PV (M)193.80199.36205.03
Year 4 PV (M)191.08198.43205.99
Year 5 PV (M)188.39197.49206.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,645.794,870.185,103.16
Equity Value (M)5,614.985,867.026,128.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,210.581,210.581,210.58
Fair Value$4.64$4.85$5.06
Upside / Downside-51.53%-49.36%-47.10%

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