Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co., Ltd. (001914.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.33 - $39.26$25.18
Multi-Stage$12.12 - $13.26$12.68
Blended Fair Value$18.93
Current Price$12.20
Upside55.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.96%-12.27%0.260.200.210.240.280.390.460.550.710.98
YoY Growth--26.90%-3.31%-14.12%-11.68%-29.03%-14.71%-17.49%-21.65%-27.97%2.93%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.97%1.38%1.39%1.40%1.65%5.09%6.08%5.82%10.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)906.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)883.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)181.37113.3668.02
Cash Retained (M)883.90883.90883.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-181.37-113.36-68.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)702.53770.54815.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.451,059.451,059.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.730.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.730.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.33$25.18$39.26
Upside / Downside42.07%106.37%221.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)906.87965.811,028.591,095.451,166.661,242.491,279.76
Payout Ratio2.53%20.03%37.52%55.01%72.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.97193.41385.92602.64845.901,118.241,183.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)174.71176.36178.02
Year 2 PV (M)314.88320.88326.93
Year 3 PV (M)444.15456.90469.89
Year 4 PV (M)563.13584.79607.06
Year 5 PV (M)672.43704.91738.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,675.2211,190.8311,726.18
Equity Value (M)12,844.5113,434.6614,046.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.451,059.451,059.45
Fair Value$12.12$12.68$13.26
Upside / Downside-0.63%3.94%8.68%

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