Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sichuan Zigong Conveying Machine Group Co., Ltd. (001288.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.40 - $112.20$48.30
Multi-Stage$17.82 - $19.48$18.64
Blended Fair Value$33.47
Current Price$25.70
Upside30.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS23.61%0.00%0.230.090.090.010.000.080.090.050.000.00
YoY Growth--173.11%-3.39%1,053.60%0.00%-100.00%-7.23%72.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.53%0.79%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0722.5513.53
Cash Retained (M)127.86127.86127.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.07-22.55-13.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.79105.32114.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.10188.10188.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.40$48.30$112.20
Upside / Downside10.50%87.95%336.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.36192.08204.57217.87232.03247.11254.52
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.5079.30109.37143.01180.57222.40235.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.5173.1973.88
Year 2 PV (M)91.4293.1694.92
Year 3 PV (M)109.30112.43115.63
Year 4 PV (M)126.16131.02136.01
Year 5 PV (M)142.07148.93156.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,811.282,947.073,088.05
Equity Value (M)3,352.743,505.813,664.55
Shares Outstanding (M)188.10188.10188.10
Fair Value$17.82$18.64$19.48
Upside / Downside-30.65%-27.48%-24.20%

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