Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Newland Digital Technology Co.,Ltd. (000997.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.25 - $218.59$111.03
Multi-Stage$25.49 - $27.85$26.65
Blended Fair Value$68.84
Current Price$29.56
Upside132.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.15%26.84%0.560.290.250.360.130.310.120.060.110.00
YoY Growth--92.75%13.63%-29.76%173.01%-57.76%171.00%78.77%-42.90%25,622.76%-99.15%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.62%1.52%2.15%0.94%1.99%0.63%0.31%0.55%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,108.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)561.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)547.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.80138.6283.17
Cash Retained (M)547.24547.24547.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.80-138.62-83.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)325.44408.62464.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,008.991,008.991,008.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.400.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.400.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.25$111.03$218.59
Upside / Downside63.24%275.61%639.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,108.991,181.081,257.851,339.611,426.681,519.421,565.00
Payout Ratio50.65%58.52%66.39%74.26%82.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)561.75691.21835.12994.821,171.751,367.481,447.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)637.41643.45649.49
Year 2 PV (M)710.17723.70737.35
Year 3 PV (M)780.13802.52825.34
Year 4 PV (M)847.35879.94913.46
Year 5 PV (M)911.92955.971,001.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,828.7622,883.1023,977.79
Equity Value (M)25,715.7426,888.6828,105.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,008.991,008.991,008.99
Fair Value$25.49$26.65$27.85
Upside / Downside-13.78%-9.85%-5.77%

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