Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.,Ltd (000862.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.35 - $2.11$1.70
Multi-Stage$9.65 - $10.71$10.17
Blended Fair Value$5.93
Current Price$5.54
Upside7.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.18%-10.89%0.160.250.240.280.320.320.380.380.390.51
YoY Growth---36.99%6.51%-15.42%-11.88%-1.36%-14.22%-0.69%-3.50%-22.74%0.73%
Dividend Yield--3.28%4.48%3.58%3.66%6.62%8.77%5.52%9.82%4.96%7.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7716.7310.04
Cash Retained (M)28.7328.7328.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.77-16.73-10.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.9612.0018.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)917.82917.82917.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-6.59%-5.59%-4.59%
Fair Value$1.35$1.70$2.11
Upside / Downside-75.72%-69.38%-61.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.84126.36119.30112.63106.34100.39103.40
Payout Ratio78.53%80.83%83.12%85.41%87.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.11102.1399.1696.2093.2690.3595.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-6.59%-5.59%-4.59%
Year 1 PV (M)99.54100.61101.67
Year 2 PV (M)94.2096.2398.28
Year 3 PV (M)89.0791.9694.92
Year 4 PV (M)84.1787.8391.61
Year 5 PV (M)79.4783.8288.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,413.238,873.309,353.29
Equity Value (M)8,859.689,333.759,828.12
Shares Outstanding (M)917.82917.82917.82
Fair Value$9.65$10.17$10.71
Upside / Downside74.24%83.56%93.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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