Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited (000756.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.31 - $44.72$22.95
Multi-Stage$9.22 - $10.09$9.65
Blended Fair Value$16.30
Current Price$15.52
Upside5.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.43%37.80%0.320.190.140.130.110.090.030.080.010.01
YoY Growth--67.37%34.34%6.74%26.11%20.00%160.00%-56.04%494.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.12%0.59%1.36%1.25%0.72%0.43%0.81%0.12%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)349.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4347.7728.66
Cash Retained (M)349.30349.30349.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.43-47.77-28.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)272.87301.53320.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)702.32702.32702.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.31$22.95$44.72
Upside / Downside-7.81%47.84%188.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.16407.01433.46461.64491.64523.60539.31
Payout Ratio8.60%24.88%41.16%57.44%73.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.86101.26178.41265.16362.44471.24498.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92.2793.1594.02
Year 2 PV (M)148.14150.97153.81
Year 3 PV (M)200.64206.40212.27
Year 4 PV (M)249.90259.51269.40
Year 5 PV (M)296.08310.38325.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,489.225,754.356,029.63
Equity Value (M)6,476.266,774.757,084.36
Shares Outstanding (M)702.32702.32702.32
Fair Value$9.22$9.65$10.09
Upside / Downside-40.58%-37.85%-35.01%

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