Definitive Analysis
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Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co., Ltd. (000598.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.46 - $142.23$133.29
Multi-Stage$22.24 - $24.34$23.27
Blended Fair Value$78.28
Current Price$6.66
Upside1,075.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.60%19.98%0.350.270.250.220.190.140.140.120.090.08
YoY Growth--27.23%8.62%13.91%20.08%29.45%0.41%19.02%33.72%9.89%43.83%
Dividend Yield--5.16%4.27%4.96%4.47%3.43%3.13%2.99%2.37%1.55%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,134.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)950.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,183.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)426.84266.78160.07
Cash Retained (M)1,183.371,183.371,183.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-426.84-266.78-160.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)756.53916.591,023.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,984.262,984.262,984.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.46$133.29$142.23
Upside / Downside1,002.98%1,901.30%2,035.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,134.202,272.922,420.662,578.012,745.582,924.043,011.76
Payout Ratio44.55%53.64%62.73%71.82%80.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)950.831,219.231,518.511,851.552,221.462,631.642,785.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,135.971,146.741,157.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,318.201,343.311,368.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,497.541,540.531,584.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,674.031,738.401,804.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,847.701,936.942,029.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,885.8461,730.0564,683.11
Equity Value (M)66,359.2769,435.9672,627.82
Shares Outstanding (M)2,984.262,984.262,984.26
Fair Value$22.24$23.27$24.34
Upside / Downside233.88%249.36%265.42%

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