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Republic Services, Inc. (RSG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.86 - $308.43$197.51
Multi-Stage$106.64 - $116.49$111.47
Blended Fair Value$154.49
Current Price$229.48
Upside-32.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.94%6.14%2.192.041.891.761.671.571.471.411.341.28
YoY Growth--7.66%7.62%7.29%5.76%6.37%6.37%4.84%5.16%4.91%5.47%
Dividend Yield--0.91%1.07%1.40%1.33%1.68%2.09%1.84%2.12%2.13%2.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,107.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)726.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,380.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.40263.38158.03
Cash Retained (M)1,380.801,380.801,380.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.40-263.38-158.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)959.401,117.431,222.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)313.13313.13313.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.063.573.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.322.322.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.063.573.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.385.896.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Fair Value$135.86$197.51$308.43
Upside / Downside-40.80%-13.93%34.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,107.002,232.152,364.742,505.202,654.012,811.652,896.00
Payout Ratio34.47%45.57%56.68%67.79%78.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)726.201,017.261,340.331,698.192,093.832,530.492,678.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Year 1 PV (M)923.62932.42941.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,104.941,126.101,147.46
Year 3 PV (M)1,271.101,307.781,345.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,422.981,478.001,534.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,561.441,637.271,716.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,106.5928,422.9729,790.00
Equity Value (M)33,390.6734,904.5536,474.47
Shares Outstanding (M)313.13313.13313.13
Fair Value$106.64$111.47$116.49
Upside / Downside-53.53%-51.42%-49.24%

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