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ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.64 - $94.54$54.49
Multi-Stage$25.09 - $27.37$26.21
Blended Fair Value$40.35
Current Price$24.81
Upside62.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.54%14.67%0.680.640.580.430.350.300.240.240.220.22
YoY Growth--5.28%10.60%33.93%22.18%17.74%25.83%0.54%6.01%0.79%29.63%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.37%3.28%1.35%1.40%2.24%1.19%0.83%0.93%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.267.664.60
Cash Retained (M)31.4831.4831.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.26-7.66-4.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.2223.8226.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.3540.3540.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.64$54.49$94.54
Upside / Downside43.64%119.65%281.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.3065.2869.5274.0478.8683.9886.50
Payout Ratio48.64%56.91%65.18%73.46%81.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.8137.1545.3254.3964.4575.5880.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.7334.0534.37
Year 2 PV (M)37.3638.0738.79
Year 3 PV (M)40.7241.8843.08
Year 4 PV (M)43.8145.4947.22
Year 5 PV (M)46.6548.9051.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)809.85848.96889.57
Equity Value (M)1,012.111,057.371,104.28
Shares Outstanding (M)40.3540.3540.35
Fair Value$25.09$26.21$27.37
Upside / Downside1.11%5.63%10.32%

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