Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Donglai Coating Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688129.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.07 - $33.70$21.80
Multi-Stage$27.80 - $30.57$29.16
Blended Fair Value$25.48
Current Price$23.39
Upside8.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS11.15%0.00%0.410.100.280.210.000.240.110.560.000.00
YoY Growth--327.36%-66.50%33.28%0.00%-100.00%111.39%-79.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.07%0.69%1.98%1.28%0.00%0.71%0.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6811.056.63
Cash Retained (M)51.9951.9951.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.68-11.05-6.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.3140.9445.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.24112.24112.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.41%5.41%5.41%
Growth Rate1.18%2.18%3.18%
Fair Value$15.07$21.80$33.70
Upside / Downside-35.57%-6.80%44.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.4090.3292.2994.3096.3698.46101.41
Payout Ratio41.19%50.95%60.71%70.48%80.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.4146.0256.0366.4677.3288.6193.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.41%5.41%5.41%
Growth Rate1.18%2.18%3.18%
Year 1 PV (M)43.2343.6644.09
Year 2 PV (M)49.4550.4351.42
Year 3 PV (M)55.1056.7458.43
Year 4 PV (M)60.2162.6365.11
Year 5 PV (M)64.8268.0971.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,847.602,991.133,140.39
Equity Value (M)3,120.413,272.693,430.93
Shares Outstanding (M)112.24112.24112.24
Fair Value$27.80$29.16$30.57
Upside / Downside18.86%24.66%30.69%

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