Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Lianchuang Opto-Electronic Science&Technology Co.,Ltd (600363.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.08 - $15.88$11.98
Multi-Stage$10.04 - $11.00$10.51
Blended Fair Value$11.25
Current Price$61.61
Upside-81.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.11%20.83%0.220.060.050.060.040.050.040.040.030.04
YoY Growth--272.52%13.46%-10.39%32.38%-13.46%18.18%22.22%9.14%-10.85%8.82%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.21%0.16%0.23%0.19%0.40%0.40%0.30%0.20%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)306.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.2338.2722.96
Cash Retained (M)227.83227.83227.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.23-38.27-22.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)166.60189.56204.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)451.74451.74451.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$9.08$11.98$15.88
Upside / Downside-85.26%-80.55%-74.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)306.15317.55329.37341.63354.34367.53378.55
Payout Ratio25.58%38.47%51.35%64.23%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.32122.15169.13219.44273.26330.78350.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)111.13112.21113.29
Year 2 PV (M)139.99142.73145.50
Year 3 PV (M)165.25170.12175.09
Year 4 PV (M)187.22194.61202.23
Year 5 PV (M)206.18216.42227.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,727.943,912.964,105.26
Equity Value (M)4,537.714,749.064,968.43
Shares Outstanding (M)451.74451.74451.74
Fair Value$10.04$10.51$11.00
Upside / Downside-83.70%-82.94%-82.15%

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