Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Analysis Mode

Ticker / Industry / Sector

Modern Dental Group Limited (3600.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.08 - $186.62$142.47
Multi-Stage$23.17 - $25.34$24.24
Blended Fair Value$83.35
Current Price$4.26
Upside1,856.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.52%26.76%0.170.100.080.200.020.050.040.040.020.03
YoY Growth--62.23%27.83%-58.46%780.92%-51.97%10.21%17.65%61.90%-19.13%73.11%
Dividend Yield--4.09%2.47%3.40%3.57%1.50%3.03%3.21%1.70%0.78%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)886.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)582.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.23110.7766.46
Cash Retained (M)582.09582.09582.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.23-110.77-66.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)404.86471.32515.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.33944.33944.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.08$142.47$186.62
Upside / Downside1,052.06%3,244.47%4,280.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)886.15943.751,005.091,070.421,140.001,214.101,250.53
Payout Ratio34.31%45.45%56.59%67.73%78.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.06428.94568.76724.95899.041,092.691,156.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)396.69400.45404.21
Year 2 PV (M)486.46495.72505.08
Year 3 PV (M)573.43589.89606.66
Year 4 PV (M)657.67682.96708.97
Year 5 PV (M)739.24774.95812.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,023.1219,941.9420,895.93
Equity Value (M)21,876.6022,885.9123,932.87
Shares Outstanding (M)944.33944.33944.33
Fair Value$23.17$24.24$25.34
Upside / Downside443.81%468.90%494.93%

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