Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.,Ltd. (002997.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.29 - $109.94$68.32
Multi-Stage$32.41 - $35.42$33.89
Blended Fair Value$51.11
Current Price$39.44
Upside29.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.05%0.61%0.370.300.180.190.210.220.120.210.010.09
YoY Growth--20.64%67.68%-2.70%-9.96%-4.72%87.72%-43.84%2,810.07%-92.22%-73.63%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.97%0.69%0.97%1.26%1.21%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)452.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)383.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.5456.5933.95
Cash Retained (M)383.14383.14383.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.54-56.59-33.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)292.61326.56349.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)208.01208.01208.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.411.571.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.411.571.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.741.902.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.29$68.32$109.94
Upside / Downside17.36%73.23%178.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)452.69482.12513.46546.83582.38620.23638.84
Payout Ratio15.36%30.29%45.22%60.15%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.55146.04232.18328.89437.20558.21590.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)132.15133.41134.66
Year 2 PV (M)190.13193.75197.40
Year 3 PV (M)243.72250.72257.85
Year 4 PV (M)293.19304.46316.06
Year 5 PV (M)338.74355.10372.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,543.825,811.596,089.61
Equity Value (M)6,741.757,049.037,367.66
Shares Outstanding (M)208.01208.01208.01
Fair Value$32.41$33.89$35.42
Upside / Downside-17.82%-14.08%-10.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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