Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
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Walmart Inc. (WMT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.19 - $48.18$38.36
Multi-Stage$38.44 - $42.10$40.23
Blended Fair Value$39.29
Current Price$101.18
Upside-61.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.03%0.78%0.830.760.760.770.760.750.760.760.770.78
YoY Growth--8.93%0.43%-0.62%0.59%1.12%-0.88%-0.36%-1.48%-1.24%1.76%
Dividend Yield--0.86%1.29%1.51%1.50%1.63%1.86%2.21%2.58%3.08%3.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,910.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,314.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,596.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,582.002,863.751,718.25
Cash Retained (M)15,596.0015,596.0015,596.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,582.00-2,863.75-1,718.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,014.0012,732.2513,877.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,039.008,039.008,039.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.371.581.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.371.581.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.492.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$30.19$38.36$48.18
Upside / Downside-70.16%-62.09%-52.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,910.0023,468.6124,040.8424,627.0325,227.5125,842.6326,617.91
Payout Ratio31.92%43.54%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,314.0010,218.2213,259.7216,443.4619,774.5823,258.3624,621.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)9,274.669,366.099,457.52
Year 2 PV (M)10,923.9511,140.4011,358.96
Year 3 PV (M)12,295.9412,663.1813,037.67
Year 4 PV (M)13,421.4213,958.5414,511.63
Year 5 PV (M)14,328.2515,048.5715,797.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)248,738.06261,242.75274,245.37
Equity Value (M)308,982.29323,419.53338,408.72
Shares Outstanding (M)8,039.008,039.008,039.00
Fair Value$38.44$40.23$42.10
Upside / Downside-62.01%-60.24%-58.40%

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