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Super Retail Group Limited (SUL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.38 - $403.50$288.05
Multi-Stage$51.81 - $56.56$54.14
Blended Fair Value$171.09
Current Price$14.24
Upside1,101.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS36.75%13.07%1.181.000.760.810.520.250.420.400.370.36
YoY Growth--17.84%31.17%-6.10%56.29%110.85%-41.88%5.45%8.14%3.54%4.07%
Dividend Yield--8.29%7.37%6.68%9.58%4.03%3.07%5.11%5.02%4.59%4.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)461.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)424.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.3857.7434.64
Cash Retained (M)37.3037.3037.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.38-57.74-34.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-55.08-20.442.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.66227.66227.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.24-0.090.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.871.871.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.24-0.090.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.38$288.05$403.50
Upside / Downside626.00%1,922.79%2,733.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)461.90491.92523.90557.95594.22632.84651.83
Payout Ratio91.92%91.54%91.15%90.77%90.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)424.60450.31477.56506.45537.08569.56602.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)416.29420.23424.18
Year 2 PV (M)408.13415.90423.75
Year 3 PV (M)400.12411.61423.31
Year 4 PV (M)392.27407.35422.87
Year 5 PV (M)384.56403.13422.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,794.5010,267.5810,758.76
Equity Value (M)11,795.8612,325.8112,875.29
Shares Outstanding (M)227.66227.66227.66
Fair Value$51.81$54.14$56.56
Upside / Downside263.86%280.21%297.16%

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