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PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,929.62 - $42,990.15$22,263.69
Multi-Stage$14,909.59 - $16,344.39$15,613.55
Blended Fair Value$18,938.62
Current Price$3,480.00
Upside444.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.17%-2.31%58.5676.480.020.0015.2145.5260.6378.0940.4167.68
YoY Growth---23.44%374,970.27%0.00%-100.00%-66.60%-24.92%-22.36%93.26%-40.29%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.38%1.79%1.03%1.71%0.87%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,963,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,863,914.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)792,742.60495,464.13297,278.48
Cash Retained (M)2,099,799.002,099,799.002,099,799.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-792,742.60-495,464.13-297,278.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,307,056.401,604,334.881,802,520.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
LTM Dividend per Share256.81256.81256.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share180.09221.05248.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend436.90477.86505.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$13,929.62$22,263.69$42,990.15
Upside / Downside300.28%539.76%1,135.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,963,713.004,128,822.794,300,810.284,479,961.984,666,576.294,860,964.095,006,793.01
Payout Ratio47.02%55.62%64.21%72.81%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,863,914.002,296,432.872,761,750.983,261,850.353,798,821.244,374,867.684,631,283.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)2,137,555.382,158,275.042,178,994.71
Year 2 PV (M)2,392,829.512,439,442.492,486,505.12
Year 3 PV (M)2,630,600.472,707,840.852,786,578.59
Year 4 PV (M)2,851,696.732,963,882.583,079,346.37
Year 5 PV (M)3,056,912.613,207,968.493,364,937.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,142,278.0999,843,688.48104,729,143.24
Equity Value (M)108,211,872.79113,321,097.94118,625,505.73
Shares Outstanding (M)7,257.877,257.877,257.87
Fair Value$14,909.59$15,613.55$16,344.39
Upside / Downside328.44%348.67%369.67%

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