Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.96 - $274.48$90.85
Multi-Stage$29.48 - $32.25$30.84
Blended Fair Value$60.84
Current Price$17.25
Upside252.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.22%7.50%0.290.315.260.295.190.270.260.190.060.13
YoY Growth---5.98%-94.12%1,690.87%-94.33%1,793.90%5.61%35.49%198.56%-48.78%-11.33%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.66%35.56%2.34%2.15%0.15%0.13%0.09%0.02%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)544.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)451.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.8168.0140.80
Cash Retained (M)451.69451.69451.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.81-68.01-40.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)342.88383.68410.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.98360.98360.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.96$90.85$274.48
Upside / Downside189.64%426.65%1,491.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)544.06579.42617.09657.20699.91745.41767.77
Payout Ratio16.98%31.58%46.19%60.79%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.37182.99285.01399.52527.70670.87710.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)167.78169.37170.96
Year 2 PV (M)239.58244.14248.75
Year 3 PV (M)307.90316.74325.75
Year 4 PV (M)372.88387.22401.97
Year 5 PV (M)434.62455.61477.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,117.919,558.3110,015.56
Equity Value (M)10,640.6611,131.3911,640.39
Shares Outstanding (M)360.98360.98360.98
Fair Value$29.48$30.84$32.25
Upside / Downside70.88%78.76%86.94%

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