Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging Co.,Ltd. (603687.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.61 - $39.90$37.39
Multi-Stage$6.27 - $6.86$6.56
Blended Fair Value$21.98
Current Price$9.17
Upside139.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.01%15.02%0.050.020.030.050.020.020.010.100.470.01
YoY Growth--123.30%-18.21%-48.77%132.32%14.49%100.78%-89.43%-79.34%5,290.69%-31.08%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.19%0.28%0.60%0.27%0.13%0.10%0.91%4.40%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.8914.318.58
Cash Retained (M)53.8353.8353.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.89-14.31-8.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.9439.5345.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)570.51570.51570.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.61$37.39$39.90
Upside / Downside124.79%307.78%335.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.46121.90129.83138.27147.25156.82161.53
Payout Ratio52.97%60.38%67.78%75.19%82.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.6373.6088.00103.96121.62141.14149.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.5769.2269.87
Year 2 PV (M)76.3977.8579.31
Year 3 PV (M)84.0886.5088.96
Year 4 PV (M)91.6595.1898.80
Year 5 PV (M)99.10103.88108.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,158.413,310.963,469.35
Equity Value (M)3,578.213,743.593,915.15
Shares Outstanding (M)570.51570.51570.51
Fair Value$6.27$6.56$6.86
Upside / Downside-31.60%-28.44%-25.16%

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