Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Keli Sensing Technology (Ningbo) Co.,Ltd. (603662.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.67 - $229.35$91.14
Multi-Stage$24.18 - $26.48$25.31
Blended Fair Value$58.23
Current Price$76.04
Upside-23.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS237.40%17.90%0.420.280.270.240.210.000.090.090.090.09
YoY Growth--50.44%2.47%13.92%12.00%22,129.71%-98.90%-0.41%-0.67%0.93%8.03%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.88%1.51%1.48%1.39%0.01%0.72%0.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)310.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7940.5024.30
Cash Retained (M)310.34310.34310.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.79-40.50-24.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)245.55269.84286.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)280.92280.92280.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.67$91.14$229.35
Upside / Downside-41.26%19.86%201.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.97345.03367.45391.34416.77443.86457.18
Payout Ratio4.21%21.37%38.52%55.68%72.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.6373.72141.56217.91303.58399.48422.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.8268.4669.10
Year 2 PV (M)119.80122.09124.39
Year 3 PV (M)169.66174.53179.50
Year 4 PV (M)217.45225.81234.42
Year 5 PV (M)263.24275.95289.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,955.536,243.196,541.85
Equity Value (M)6,793.517,110.037,438.41
Shares Outstanding (M)280.92280.92280.92
Fair Value$24.18$25.31$26.48
Upside / Downside-68.20%-66.71%-65.18%

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