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Definitive Analysis

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CITIC Securities Company Limited (600030.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.13 - $371.80$348.43
Multi-Stage$49.18 - $53.81$51.45
Blended Fair Value$199.94
Current Price$29.90
Upside568.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.14%16.04%1.200.921.000.830.910.680.770.560.710.51
YoY Growth--30.13%-8.34%20.53%-8.90%35.40%-12.24%38.44%-21.83%38.50%89.85%
Dividend Yield--4.51%4.74%4.90%3.98%4.06%3.23%3.23%3.17%4.68%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,063.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,381.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,681.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,612.753,507.972,104.78
Cash Retained (M)18,681.9618,681.9618,681.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,612.75-3,507.97-2,104.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,069.2115,173.9916,577.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,011.3215,011.3215,011.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.13$348.43$371.80
Upside / Downside285.06%1,065.31%1,143.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,063.7529,887.8931,830.6033,899.5936,103.0738,449.7739,603.26
Payout Ratio33.43%44.74%56.06%67.37%78.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,381.7913,373.1017,843.6522,838.8728,408.0834,604.7936,633.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,395.8812,513.3812,630.87
Year 2 PV (M)15,331.1215,623.1415,917.91
Year 3 PV (M)18,189.0518,711.1919,243.23
Year 4 PV (M)20,971.1621,777.6522,607.18
Year 5 PV (M)23,678.9224,822.6226,010.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)647,641.94678,923.29711,401.84
Equity Value (M)738,208.07772,371.27807,811.14
Shares Outstanding (M)15,011.3215,011.3215,011.32
Fair Value$49.18$51.45$53.81
Upside / Downside64.47%72.08%79.98%

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