Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co (4263.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.49 - $108.69$88.24
Multi-Stage$159.26 - $175.22$167.09
Blended Fair Value$127.67
Current Price$187.80
Upside-32.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%6.174.403.191.250.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--40.23%38.04%155.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%1.83%2.40%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.5776.6145.97
Cash Retained (M)274.16274.16274.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.57-76.61-45.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.59197.55228.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
LTM Dividend per Share4.234.234.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.136.707.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$70.49$88.24$108.69
Upside / Downside-62.47%-53.01%-42.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.87606.74600.68594.67588.72582.84600.32
Payout Ratio55.27%62.21%69.16%76.11%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.71377.47415.43452.58488.95524.55555.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)350.80354.38357.96
Year 2 PV (M)358.79366.15373.58
Year 3 PV (M)363.26374.49385.96
Year 4 PV (M)364.72379.84395.42
Year 5 PV (M)363.63382.56402.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,946.1611,516.1512,109.65
Equity Value (M)12,747.3613,373.5714,024.84
Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
Fair Value$159.26$167.09$175.22
Upside / Downside-15.19%-11.03%-6.70%

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