Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Huaye Plastics Machinery Co., Ltd. (301616.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.72 - $36.71$30.44
Multi-Stage$44.43 - $48.96$46.65
Blended Fair Value$38.55
Current Price$51.71
Upside-25.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.9324.9614.97
Cash Retained (M)196.06196.06196.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.93-24.96-14.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)156.13171.11181.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.0065.0065.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.402.632.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.402.632.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.462.692.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.72$30.44$36.71
Upside / Downside-52.19%-41.13%-29.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.66197.67195.69193.73191.80189.88195.57
Payout Ratio1.80%19.44%37.08%54.72%72.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.6038.4372.57106.01138.78170.89180.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.3135.6736.03
Year 2 PV (M)61.2662.5163.78
Year 3 PV (M)82.2284.7787.36
Year 4 PV (M)98.90103.00107.22
Year 5 PV (M)111.89117.71123.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,498.492,628.592,764.06
Equity Value (M)2,888.063,032.253,182.23
Shares Outstanding (M)65.0065.0065.00
Fair Value$44.43$46.65$48.96
Upside / Downside-14.07%-9.78%-5.32%

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