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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (0HQU.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.83 - $211.93$157.22
Multi-Stage$120.59 - $131.96$126.17
Blended Fair Value$141.69
Current Price$89.70
Upside57.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.55%3.59%2.181.871.841.561.551.591.681.681.681.69
YoY Growth--17.04%1.63%17.69%0.78%-2.64%-5.36%0.00%0.00%-0.71%10.29%
Dividend Yield--2.79%2.24%2.53%1.51%3.41%5.85%4.02%4.45%5.72%5.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,379.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,045.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)275.80172.38103.43
Cash Retained (M)1,045.001,045.001,045.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-275.80-172.38-103.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)769.20872.63941.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.65166.65166.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.625.245.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.625.245.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.627.247.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$117.83$157.22$211.93
Upside / Downside31.36%75.27%136.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,379.001,437.991,499.501,563.641,630.531,700.281,751.29
Payout Ratio24.22%37.38%50.53%63.69%76.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.00537.47757.73995.861,252.971,530.251,619.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)488.00492.73497.45
Year 2 PV (M)624.68636.83649.11
Year 3 PV (M)745.43767.29789.58
Year 4 PV (M)851.57885.03919.47
Year 5 PV (M)944.31990.921,039.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,441.6717,253.2318,096.53
Equity Value (M)20,095.6621,026.0421,991.49
Shares Outstanding (M)166.65166.65166.65
Fair Value$120.59$126.17$131.96
Upside / Downside34.43%40.66%47.11%

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