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Safe Bulkers, Inc. (SB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.06 - $88.08$82.55
Multi-Stage$13.18 - $14.41$13.78
Blended Fair Value$48.17
Current Price$4.44
Upside984.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.74%1.30%0.280.290.230.110.110.110.110.120.140.17
YoY Growth---3.83%27.07%115.59%-2.60%0.02%0.95%-7.54%-12.34%-19.90%-32.32%
Dividend Yield--7.68%6.00%6.29%2.26%4.51%9.28%7.25%3.82%6.14%20.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.225.763.46
Cash Retained (M)16.5916.5916.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.22-5.76-3.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.3710.8213.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.05104.05104.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.06$82.55$88.08
Upside / Downside734.61%1,759.18%1,883.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.0949.0852.2755.6759.2963.1465.04
Payout Ratio64.01%69.21%74.41%79.61%84.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.5033.9738.9044.3250.2856.8360.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.6031.8932.19
Year 2 PV (M)33.6534.2934.93
Year 3 PV (M)35.6636.6837.72
Year 4 PV (M)37.6239.0740.56
Year 5 PV (M)39.5541.4643.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,193.271,250.901,310.74
Equity Value (M)1,371.341,434.301,499.60
Shares Outstanding (M)104.05104.05104.05
Fair Value$13.18$13.78$14.41
Upside / Downside196.82%210.45%224.59%

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