Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nedbank Group Limited (NED.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,570.43 - $4,214.16$2,409.99
Multi-Stage$1,509.48 - $1,651.48$1,579.17
Blended Fair Value$1,994.58
Current Price$243.04
Upside720.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.51%7.72%20.3817.9716.334.547.3014.8714.0712.6811.6611.26
YoY Growth--13.37%10.08%259.32%-37.77%-50.88%5.66%10.92%8.82%3.56%16.20%
Dividend Yield--7.23%8.40%7.68%2.60%5.64%6.94%5.12%4.95%4.89%5.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,358.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,482.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,876.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,471.604,044.752,426.85
Cash Retained (M)12,876.0012,876.0012,876.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,471.60-4,044.75-2,426.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,404.408,831.2510,449.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)479.32479.32479.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.3618.4221.80
LTM Dividend per Share40.6540.6540.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.3618.4221.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend54.0159.0762.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Fair Value$1,570.43$2,409.99$4,214.16
Upside / Downside546.16%891.60%1,633.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,358.0033,879.7035,472.9637,141.1538,887.7940,716.5641,938.06
Payout Ratio60.21%66.17%72.12%78.08%84.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,482.0022,416.8925,584.7329,000.9532,681.8936,644.9138,792.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Year 1 PV (M)20,698.2420,897.8321,097.42
Year 2 PV (M)21,812.0722,234.7622,661.51
Year 3 PV (M)22,828.9623,495.7724,175.43
Year 4 PV (M)23,754.1324,683.7125,640.30
Year 5 PV (M)24,592.5525,801.3627,057.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)609,838.05639,813.80670,956.87
Equity Value (M)723,523.99756,927.23791,588.78
Shares Outstanding (M)479.32479.32479.32
Fair Value$1,509.48$1,579.17$1,651.48
Upside / Downside521.08%549.76%579.51%

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