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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.28 - $177.97$143.68
Multi-Stage$150.21 - $164.79$157.36
Blended Fair Value$150.52
Current Price$40.33
Upside273.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%6.09%1.701.691.721.761.721.681.601.451.321.13
YoY Growth--0.66%-1.61%-2.82%2.57%2.64%4.84%10.31%10.08%16.67%20.00%
Dividend Yield--4.73%5.34%7.63%2.70%2.76%6.37%2.58%1.98%2.01%2.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,109.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,793.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.80263.63158.18
Cash Retained (M)1,793.001,793.001,793.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.80-263.63-158.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,371.201,529.381,634.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.75180.75180.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.598.469.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.598.469.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3310.2110.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.84%1.84%2.84%
Fair Value$114.28$143.68$177.97
Upside / Downside183.37%256.26%341.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,109.002,147.872,187.462,227.782,268.842,310.662,379.98
Payout Ratio14.98%29.99%44.99%59.99%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.00644.08984.141,336.521,701.562,079.602,201.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.84%1.84%2.84%
Year 1 PV (M)584.66590.46596.26
Year 2 PV (M)810.95827.12843.44
Year 3 PV (M)999.731,029.771,060.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,155.381,201.891,249.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,281.821,346.651,414.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,318.2123,446.9524,620.91
Equity Value (M)27,150.7628,442.8429,784.88
Shares Outstanding (M)180.75180.75180.75
Fair Value$150.21$157.36$164.79
Upside / Downside272.46%290.18%308.60%

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