Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PAO Sovcomflot (FLOT.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.77 - $59.62$35.71
Multi-Stage$16.31 - $17.83$17.06
Blended Fair Value$26.39
Current Price$76.45
Upside-65.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS83.19%46.54%0.200.050.000.090.040.010.010.050.040.01
YoY Growth--318.61%0.00%-100.00%114.21%334.66%-24.48%-73.07%13.03%360.29%109.29%
Dividend Yield--18.17%3.39%0.00%9.29%3.54%0.76%0.83%2.72%2.37%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,472.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)321.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,151.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)494.56309.10185.46
Cash Retained (M)2,151.422,151.422,151.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-494.56-309.10-185.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,656.861,842.321,965.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,328.952,328.952,328.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.790.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.77$35.71$59.62
Upside / Downside-68.91%-53.29%-22.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,472.792,633.522,804.702,987.003,181.163,387.943,489.57
Payout Ratio13.00%28.40%43.80%59.20%74.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)321.37747.841,228.391,768.262,373.123,049.143,227.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)677.97684.39690.82
Year 2 PV (M)1,009.571,028.801,048.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,317.481,355.301,393.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,602.931,664.581,727.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,867.121,957.302,050.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,520.2233,042.6534,623.36
Equity Value (M)37,995.2839,733.0241,535.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,328.952,328.952,328.95
Fair Value$16.31$17.06$17.83
Upside / Downside-78.66%-77.68%-76.67%

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