Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ferguson plc (FERG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$829.97 - $1,959.45$1,836.29
Multi-Stage$286.22 - $313.41$299.57
Blended Fair Value$1,067.93
Current Price$248.50
Upside329.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.38%3.51%2.463.953.582.715.221.652.246.851.651.58
YoY Growth---37.63%10.27%32.16%-48.07%216.82%-26.52%-67.26%314.21%4.33%-9.21%
Dividend Yield--0.99%2.01%2.38%2.48%3.41%1.64%2.64%10.39%2.21%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,956.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)489.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,466.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)391.20244.50146.70
Cash Retained (M)1,466.261,466.261,466.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-391.20-244.50-146.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,075.061,221.761,319.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.53198.53198.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.426.156.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.426.156.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.888.629.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$829.97$1,836.29$1,959.45
Upside / Downside233.99%638.95%688.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,956.002,083.142,218.542,362.752,516.332,679.892,760.29
Payout Ratio25.04%38.03%51.02%64.02%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)489.74792.221,131.961,512.511,937.762,411.902,553.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)736.87743.85750.84
Year 2 PV (M)979.31997.971,016.79
Year 3 PV (M)1,217.131,252.071,287.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,450.381,506.161,563.53
Year 5 PV (M)1,679.141,760.241,844.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,759.4953,211.2055,756.73
Equity Value (M)56,822.3259,471.4862,220.01
Shares Outstanding (M)198.53198.53198.53
Fair Value$286.22$299.57$313.41
Upside / Downside15.18%20.55%26.12%

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