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PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk (ACES.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$682.79 - $1,242.00$915.15
Multi-Stage$1,000.66 - $1,096.26$1,047.56
Blended Fair Value$981.35
Current Price$496.00
Upside97.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.47%18.82%33.4831.0420.5832.1318.0528.2322.7316.4115.3415.92
YoY Growth--7.86%50.85%-35.96%77.96%-36.04%24.20%38.49%6.95%-3.59%166.67%
Dividend Yield--6.70%3.41%4.30%3.13%1.18%2.17%1.26%1.23%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)819,151.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573,533.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)245,618.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163,830.26102,393.9161,436.35
Cash Retained (M)245,618.26245,618.26245,618.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-163,830.26-102,393.91-61,436.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)81,788.00143,224.34184,181.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
LTM Dividend per Share33.4833.4833.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.2541.8444.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$682.79$915.15$1,242.00
Upside / Downside37.66%84.51%150.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)819,151.31839,397.55860,144.19881,403.61903,188.48925,511.78953,277.14
Payout Ratio70.02%74.01%78.01%82.01%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573,533.06621,258.41670,992.57722,805.68776,770.13832,960.61881,781.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)574,110.10579,767.94585,425.78
Year 2 PV (M)573,011.76584,361.44595,822.42
Year 3 PV (M)570,414.15587,445.14604,811.80
Year 4 PV (M)566,479.45589,142.29612,478.41
Year 5 PV (M)561,356.84589,568.22618,902.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,297,464.5215,015,993.4615,763,124.47
Equity Value (M)17,142,836.8317,946,278.4818,780,565.47
Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
Fair Value$1,000.66$1,047.56$1,096.26
Upside / Downside101.75%111.20%121.02%

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