Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (688319.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.98 - $23.02$8.76
Multi-Stage$3.01 - $3.29$3.15
Blended Fair Value$5.95
Current Price$27.20
Upside-78.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS126.85%23.19%0.070.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--395.62%40.81%313.18%36.38%52.76%23.43%312.52%0.00%-100.00%-26.12%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.16%0.05%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.848.034.82
Cash Retained (M)53.0153.0153.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.84-8.03-4.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1744.9948.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.92405.92405.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.98$8.76$23.02
Upside / Downside-81.71%-67.81%-15.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.2168.3972.8377.5682.6187.9890.61
Payout Ratio17.44%31.95%46.46%60.98%75.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.2021.8533.8447.3062.3679.1883.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)20.0120.2020.39
Year 2 PV (M)28.3728.9129.46
Year 3 PV (M)36.3137.3538.42
Year 4 PV (M)43.8445.5247.26
Year 5 PV (M)50.9753.4355.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,040.961,091.231,143.44
Equity Value (M)1,220.461,276.661,334.95
Shares Outstanding (M)405.92405.92405.92
Fair Value$3.01$3.15$3.29
Upside / Downside-88.95%-88.44%-87.91%

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