Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Relia, Inc. (4708.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$765.39 - $1,269.17$988.19
Multi-Stage$1,380.45 - $1,516.21$1,447.02
Blended Fair Value$1,217.61
Current Price$1,457.00
Upside-16.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS4.15%-2.47%43.0044.8240.8439.3338.2635.0930.8530.8630.8446.76
YoY Growth---4.06%9.74%3.84%2.78%9.05%13.75%-0.05%0.06%-34.04%-15.35%
Dividend Yield--2.95%4.19%3.01%3.92%3.04%2.22%2.52%2.90%2.25%4.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,301.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,134.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,166.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)860.20537.63322.58
Cash Retained (M)2,166.012,166.012,166.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-860.20-537.63-322.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,305.811,628.381,843.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.8464.8464.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.1425.1128.43
LTM Dividend per Share32.9332.9332.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.1425.1128.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend53.0758.0461.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-0.10%0.90%1.90%
Fair Value$765.39$988.19$1,269.17
Upside / Downside-47.47%-32.18%-12.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,301.004,339.594,378.534,417.824,457.464,497.464,632.38
Payout Ratio49.64%57.71%65.78%73.86%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,134.992,504.452,880.363,262.823,651.904,047.714,284.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-0.10%0.90%1.90%
Year 1 PV (M)2,321.232,344.472,367.71
Year 2 PV (M)2,474.352,524.132,574.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,597.842,676.642,757.02
Year 4 PV (M)2,694.932,804.462,917.31
Year 5 PV (M)2,768.502,909.873,056.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,648.5380,562.4784,634.70
Equity Value (M)89,505.3793,822.0498,308.09
Shares Outstanding (M)64.8464.8464.84
Fair Value$1,380.45$1,447.02$1,516.21
Upside / Downside-5.25%-0.68%4.06%

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