Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. (4041.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,729.17 - $55,986.19$52,467.26
Multi-Stage$8,588.60 - $9,403.46$8,988.53
Blended Fair Value$30,727.89
Current Price$3,450.00
Upside790.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.52%18.47%120.14136.66108.8763.8148.0032.9632.9432.9636.2741.70
YoY Growth---12.09%25.52%70.63%32.93%45.64%0.06%-0.06%-9.14%-13.01%88.94%
Dividend Yield--3.96%5.19%4.21%2.92%2.99%2.33%2.35%2.15%2.34%4.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,460.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,950.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,510.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,092.001,932.501,159.50
Cash Retained (M)10,510.0010,510.0010,510.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,092.00-1,932.50-1,159.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,418.008,577.509,350.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.9254.9254.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share135.08156.19170.27
LTM Dividend per Share90.1490.1490.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share135.08156.19170.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend225.21246.33260.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27,729.17$52,467.26$55,986.19
Upside / Downside703.74%1,420.79%1,522.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,460.0016,464.9017,535.1218,674.9019,888.7721,181.5421,816.99
Payout Ratio32.02%43.61%55.21%66.81%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,950.007,181.089,681.2912,476.1915,593.5219,063.3920,180.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,688.486,751.886,815.27
Year 2 PV (M)8,398.628,558.598,720.07
Year 3 PV (M)10,080.7810,370.1610,665.03
Year 4 PV (M)11,735.2812,186.5912,650.79
Year 5 PV (M)13,362.4714,007.8914,678.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)421,396.60441,750.21462,882.81
Equity Value (M)471,662.23493,625.32516,411.97
Shares Outstanding (M)54.9254.9254.92
Fair Value$8,588.60$8,988.53$9,403.46
Upside / Downside148.94%160.54%172.56%

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