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Luzhou Bank Co., Ltd. (1983.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.42 - $9.74$7.98
Multi-Stage$13.03 - $14.35$13.68
Blended Fair Value$10.83
Current Price$2.27
Upside377.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.49%0.00%0.170.100.040.040.090.110.150.020.030.03
YoY Growth--64.88%195.12%1.31%-63.10%-13.49%-28.29%812.76%-45.43%20.69%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.44%4.70%1.30%1.49%4.32%5.35%6.48%0.74%1.26%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,006.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,536.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.22250.76150.46
Cash Retained (M)1,536.801,536.801,536.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.22-250.76-150.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,135.581,286.031,386.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,717.752,717.752,717.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.42$7.98$9.74
Upside / Downside182.85%251.52%328.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,006.101,986.041,966.181,946.511,927.051,907.781,965.01
Payout Ratio23.39%36.71%50.04%63.36%76.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.30729.17983.801,233.261,477.641,717.001,817.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)674.50681.39688.27
Year 2 PV (M)841.81859.08876.52
Year 3 PV (M)976.151,006.341,037.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,081.891,126.731,172.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,162.891,223.451,286.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,675.3532,272.6933,935.89
Equity Value (M)35,412.6037,169.6738,997.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,717.752,717.752,717.75
Fair Value$13.03$13.68$14.35
Upside / Downside474.01%502.49%532.12%

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