Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited (1818.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.36 - $26.83$20.25
Multi-Stage$12.12 - $13.22$12.66
Blended Fair Value$16.46
Current Price$18.61
Upside-11.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.33%-2.16%0.100.170.080.130.130.060.100.090.070.06
YoY Growth---38.70%107.51%-35.41%-5.58%141.07%-42.55%1.81%37.96%6.64%-50.05%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.92%1.06%2.32%1.71%0.72%1.38%1.84%1.15%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,654.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)694.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,959.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)730.81456.76274.05
Cash Retained (M)2,959.112,959.112,959.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-730.81-456.76-274.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,228.292,502.352,685.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,269.653,269.653,269.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.981.03
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.36$20.25$26.83
Upside / Downside-17.48%8.83%44.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,654.063,891.584,144.534,413.924,700.835,006.385,156.57
Payout Ratio19.02%33.22%47.41%61.61%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)694.961,292.591,964.972,719.313,563.404,505.744,769.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,146.921,157.791,168.67
Year 2 PV (M)1,547.051,576.521,606.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,899.691,954.222,009.79
Year 4 PV (M)2,208.832,293.782,381.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,478.212,597.912,722.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,356.3931,822.6233,344.96
Equity Value (M)39,637.1041,402.8443,233.02
Shares Outstanding (M)3,269.653,269.653,269.65
Fair Value$12.12$12.66$13.22
Upside / Downside-34.86%-31.96%-28.95%

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